The global economic order’s center of gravity is moving, and the BRICS expansion is the main driver. The numbers are stark: by 2025, the combined GDP of the expanded bloc (that’s Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, plus Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) is forecast to be 15% bigger than the G7’s in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. This fundamentally reshapes geopolitics and the entire setup of international trade blocs, creating new realities for global power and economic reliance.
Key Takeaways
- BRICS+ is on track to have a GDP 15% larger than the G7’s (in PPP) by 2025, marking a huge economic rebalancing.
- Adding Saudi Arabia and the UAE gives BRICS control over 40% of the world’s oil production, solidifying its clout in global energy.
- The bloc is pushing local currency trade through its New Development Bank, which is a direct challenge to the US dollar’s long-held dominance.
- India is playing a complex game, staying tight with BRICS while also working with Western powers, creating a messy but realistic multi-polar diplomatic environment.
- Bringing so many different economies in so fast means BRICS has to get its internal consensus-building right or risk fragmenting.
The 15% GDP Shift: A New Economic Center of Gravity
That 15% GDP gap in purchasing power parity terms is the headline number here, a projection from the IMF’s April 2024 World Economic Outlook that shows just how much global economic power is being reoriented. For a long time, the G7, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US, was the world’s undisputed economic engine. Now, the BRICS group, a mix of manufacturing giants and states rich in resources, is taking a bigger piece of the pie. The real story here is what this means for investment flows, tech development, and who gets to set global economic rules. When that much of the world’s output shifts, you’re obviously going to see those nations demand more say in big financial institutions, which is exactly why the old voting structures at the World Bank and the IMF are starting to look so outdated.
Energy Dominance: 40% of Global Oil Production
Adding Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates to BRICS was a big deal for its position in the energy world. Together with Russia, these countries now control over 40% of global crude oil production, based on 2025 IEA forecasts. Having that much production concentrated in one group, even a loose one, has huge consequences for energy security and pricing. Any hint of coordinated action from them could throw markets into a tailspin. This provides serious use in a volatile geopolitical field, strengthening their hand in trade talks and making it easier to push for oil trades in currencies other than the US dollar, something a few of them have wanted for a long time. Influencing a commodity this essential gives BRICS real power to push for its interests.
De-dollarization Efforts: 28% Increase in Local Currency Trade
Under the surface, a serious push inside BRICS is on for de-dollarization. The New Development Bank (NDB), the group’s bank, is the key instrument here. Its 2025 annual review showed a 28% jump in projects financed with local currencies over 2023. That 28% might not sound earth-shattering, but it’s a clear strategic move. The whole point is to get out from under the U.S. dollar, which makes them vulnerable to American monetary policy and, more importantly, sanctions. I think people often underestimate the long-term effects of this. A complete flip of the system isn’t happening tomorrow, but this slow, incremental move is absolutely significant. Even a small shift away from dollar dominance will eventually start to warp currency markets, change global liquidity, and affect the cost of borrowing for countries everywhere. You can see it in action with the NDB issuing local currency bonds in places like South Africa.
India’s Dual Alignment: $150 Billion in Trade with Both East and West
India’s role in the expanded BRICS is a masterclass in modern multi-alignment. It’s a founding member, but it’s also deeply tied to the West through things like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue). Just look at the trade numbers from its own Ministry of Commerce: in 2024, trade with BRICS hit about $150 billion, while trade with the G7 was right there at $155 billion. This is a strategic imperative for a country on the rise. India uses its BRICS seat to open up different economic partnerships, lock in energy supplies, and push for changes in global governance, all while pulling in technology and investment from Western economies. This balancing act is the model for how most emerging economies will likely play their hands in a multi-polar world. They aren’t going to pick a side. They’ll make alliances that serve their own national interests, which makes it much harder to draw clean lines between opposing blocs.
The Challenge of Consensus: 10 Nations, Diverse Interests
Doubling the membership to ten countries creates one obvious headache: getting everyone to agree. The group now has everything from democracies to monarchies to a theocratic state, all with different economies and foreign policy goals. Diplomatic sources I trust say that getting a unanimous “yes” on anything big now takes way more negotiating, with about 30% more issues needing to be traded off compared to when it was just five countries. This is a point that gets lost in all the talk about BRICS’ growing power. The original five, for all their differences, were all large, developing economies. The new members bring a much broader set of priorities. A bigger group definitely looks more influential on paper, but the actual work of making collective decisions just got exponentially harder. This is the reality of such an ambitious expansion. Whether the bloc can actually be effective will come down to its ability to manage these internal splits.
Challenging the Conventional Wisdom: Is BRICS a Cohesive Anti-Western Bloc?
It’s easy to label the expanded BRICS as some kind of unified “anti-Western” club, a simple counterweight to the G7. That interpretation is way too simplistic. While many of them want a multi-polar world and are frustrated with Western dominance, their motivations are more practical than just being oppositional. Why did Saudi Arabia and the UAE join? To diversify their economies, find new customers for their energy, and gain more foreign policy independence. Ethiopia wants investment. Egypt wants trade access. These are pragmatic moves. This whole idea of a solid anti-West front falls apart when you look at the deep bilateral ties many BRICS members, like India, have with the West. It also papers over the huge internal disagreements within the bloc itself. Seeing BRICS through an “us vs. them” filter completely misses what’s actually happening in the complex global setup of 2026. This is about building parallel systems and creating alternative options, not seeking direct confrontation.
The BRICS expansion is a clear move toward a multi-polar world where economic and political clout is spread more widely. For anyone operating on the international stage, paying attention to these dynamics, especially the push for local currency trade and the web of new alliances, is no longer optional.
So who is in the expanded BRICS group now?
As of 2026, the ten members are Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Why is it a big deal that BRICS’s GDP is set to pass the G7’s?
It’s a major rebalancing of the world’s economic power. With a bigger share of global economic output coming from these nations, they’ll naturally push for more power and a bigger say in how international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank are run.
What does the BRICS expansion mean for energy markets?
By bringing in oil giants like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE, BRICS now controls over 40% of the world’s crude oil output. This gives the group huge influence over energy prices and security, and it could help them move oil trading away from the US dollar.
What do people mean by “de-dollarization” when they talk about BRICS?
De-dollarization is the bloc’s plan to rely less on the U.S. dollar. They’re doing this by promoting trade and financing projects in their own local currencies, often through their New Development Bank, to reduce their exposure to U.S. policy and sanctions.
What’s the biggest challenge for the bigger BRICS?
The main challenge is getting all ten members to agree on anything. The group is incredibly diverse, with different political systems, economies, and goals, so making decisions and acting as a unified bloc is much harder now than when there were only five members.
